The Bitcoin “369d dump”: It will happen again, get prepared.
In May 2021, Bitcoin dumped unexpectedly and violently. Many sources were blamed — Elon Musk, China, etc. — but I think there may be a much simpler explanation. Habit.
What is the “369d dump”
- After the 2013 halving, the market rallied for ~369 days and then sold off.
- After the 2016 halving, the market rallied for ~369 days and then sold off.
- After the 2020 halving, the market rallied for ~369 days and then sold off, violently. We just experienced this in May 2021.
This is why I am calling the “369d dump” — standing for the 369 day dump after halving. You can see the KS Model has lines on each 369 event. See the points 1, 2, and 3 below:
What is hidden were the financial consequences of calling a top of the 369d level in 2017. This can be seen more clearly below:
Get ready for the “525d dump”
I feel the 525d dump has a high probability of occurring. The 2013 cycle ran 369 days (369d) to the peak. The 2017 cycle ran 525 days (525d) to the peak.
Quick question, is 525 days more than 369 days? Of course it is you say, it’s about 42.28% more or 156 days longer. The 2017 peak lasted 156 days longer than expected — and Bitcoin rose 668% from that level. This could have constituted life changing wealth for so many people that would have been scared out of the market by the “369d.”
As the 369d dump has already occurred three times, there is a high likelihood of the 525d dump occurring this cycle (past patterns tend to repeat). The likelihood is so great that many market analysts are calling the end of the bull market for 2021 around the 525d mark. The 525d dump will happen somewhere around the 6th of October 2021, if history repeats.
The “747d dump”
If we add 42.28% more days to 525 days, we get ~747 days. This is the earliest we would expect the bull market to end based on past price behavior.
We really don’t know if the current cycle will be more or less than 747 days from the having. I’d take a position that it will be longer, but until I can get some concrete mathematics to back up that assertion, I’ll need to keep at 747 days for now.
If 747 days become the next dump in the current cycle. You can see Point 1 below refers to the 25th of May 2022 where the logarithmic trend line would associate a price of Bitcoin around $486,000 (at line “KS”).
Plan B’s Stock to Flow Model ($100K prediction: Line “S2F”) and Stock to Flow X Model ($288,000 prediction — that one that Plan B likes the most: Line “S2FX”) are both represented here.
A call to the community
If we can collaborate together as a community to improve the model and estimates, it would be much appreciated. Consider how the previous cycle peak ran 42% longer (+156 days) than expected and Bitcoin increased from what was thought to be the peak for an additional gain of 668%. If we can capture such gains through mathematics, we can help so many people together.
Tops and bottoms are always based on probabilities, not certainties. You can find the original article for the KS Model (I update the chart each day).
If you have any thoughts, insights, or other feedback, please reach out and discuss it with me. I welcome all contributions. I can be reached on Twitter or LinkedIn.
Trading Bitcoin is difficult, best of luck to everyone out there. I hope this article gives you some benefit.
About the author
Ken is a trader, for many decades, who specializes in technical analysis and seeks to keep others on the right side of the trade and the market.
He is the former Chairman of the International Intangible Management Standards Institute. He is the author of Intangible Management: Tools for Solving the Accounting and Management Crisis (Academic Press, 2002), Intangible Finance Standards: Advances in Fundamental and technical Analysis (Academic Press, 2005); Leveraging Knowledge, Time and Technology (IIMSI Press, 1998). He was a pioneer in the fields of Time Valuation, Knowledge Management, Intellectual Capital Management, and Intangible Management. He has been a keynote speaker at more than 300 events internationally. Ken commenced lecturing statistics at 18 years of age, and is an actuarial scholarship holder.
